There are no "Reagan Democrats" in Western Pennsylvania

The Romney campaign's attempt to win Pennsylvania has been described as everything from expanding the map to the same last-minute attempt every Republican has made since 1992, in this case due to his inability to pick off OH, IA, WI and a lack of ad saturation in PA, plus the lack of an early vote in the state.

Whichever of these descriptions is true, a common theme in articles giving Romney a shot at Pennsylvania discuss the legions of "Reagan Democrats" that supposedly exist in Western Pennsylvania.

Third, Romney would need to win the other swing bloc, conservative male Democrats concentrated in the Western part of the state around Pittsburgh, Johnstown, and Erie. Once known as “Reagan Democrats,” they’re older, blue-collar, and socially conservative.

In order for Western Pennsylvania to be considered a "Reagan Democrat" area, Ronald Reagan would have needed to have performed well there in comparison to his national performance (as well as in comparison to other Republicans). He did not manage that. In fact, Reagan's performance in Western Pennsylvania (relative to his national performance) was about as bad as it gets; they were anti-Reagan Democrats. In 1984, Mondale won Western Pennsylvania by 6.6 points, a better margin than Carter in 1976 or Gore in 2000 (both of whom won the state), and far better in comparison to his national performance than any other Democrat.

The following graph shows how many points over (or in the case of Obama in 2008 in Western PA, under) their national performance the Democratic candidate for president performed in Western Pennsylvania and in Pennsylvania as a whole. Incidentally, notice that Pennsylvania has been more Democratic than the nation in every election from 1960 to 2008, though usually not by more than a few points. Only five other states (New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Rhode Island) have been consistently more Democratic than the nation as a whole in those 13 elections (Hawaii was narrowly more Republican in 1960, and has been more Democratic in the last 12).

However, the path to Democratic victory in Pennsylvania has changed somewhat. Before 1996 was come out of Philly + suburbs with at least an 8 point margin and win in Northeast, and then the West would be enough to overcome the 20+ point deficit in Central PA (which James Carville famously referred to as "Alabama"). The new path, for Obama in 2012 is going to be: massive turnout in Philadelphia, split/slight win in the Philly suburbs, win Biden's birth region of Northeast PA by 10, hold central PA to like 15 point deficit, and avoid losing by more than a few in Western PA

Call them Democrats who got shafted by NAFTA (note the precipitous proportional decline for Clinton between 1992 and 1996) or Democrats who cling to their guns and religion, as Obama described them, or for that matter, do as the late Jack Murtha, who knew the area about as well as anyone, and call them racist Democrats (Obama in 2008 was the first candidate to underperform in Western Pennsylvania relative to his nationwide performance since at least 1956, and probably earlier). But don't call them Reagan Democrats. They couldn't stand the guy.

Republicans in Congress Who Agree with Akin and Mourdock on Rape

While only a few Republican members of Congress have stated their views on pregnancies as a result of rape in as a despicable manner as Rep. Todd Akin and Senate candidate Richard Mourdock, most of them agree 100% that if a woman gets pregnant from rape, she has to continue the pregnancy and bear her rapist's child, and for that matter, agree with the "it's life, a gift from God" reasoning of Mourdock (how many they feel "only 'legitimate' rape is rape" is less clear)

Anyone who sponsors a bill changing the law to define life as beginning at conception is stating exactly that, and they ought to be asked to explain themselves to their consituents. My guess is most will sound just as offensive as Akin and Mourdock if they're forced to give an off-the-cuff explanation.

Roughly half the GOP caucus co-sponsored the Life at Conception Act

To implement equal protection for the right to life of each born and preborn human person

Where "human person" is defined as

The terms `human person' and `human being' include each and every member of the species homo sapiens at all stages of life, including the moment of fertilization, cloning, or other moment at which an individual member of the human species comes into being.

This act does have an exception which would technically allow a woman to perform an abortion on herself without committing a crime (although it appears doctors or anyone else involved, doctor, could be charged with murder or accessory to murder).

However, no such exception exists for the Sanctity of Human Life Act which has 66 sponsors.

Notable members of Congress (sponsors of either bill) who believe rape pregnancies are a gift and  are considered to be in potentially close races include

Todd Akin (of course), Roscoe Bartlett (MD-06), Joe Walsh (IL-08), Jeff Denham (CA-19), Allen West (FL-18), Dan Benishek (MI-01), Chip Cravaack (MN-08), Joseph Heck (NV-03), Jim Renacci (OH-16), Quico Canseco (TX-23), Daniel Webster (FL-10), Larry Buchson (IN-08), Steve King (IA-04), Michelle Bachmann (MN-06), Bill Johnson (OH-06), Sean Duffy (WI-07), Steve Southerland (FL-02), John Kline (MN-02), Bob Gibbs (OH-07), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Scott DesJarlais (TN-04) [the guy who's pro-abortion when it comes to himself being in a sticky situation], Scott Rigell (VA-02), Reid Ribble (WI-08).

Israel Trip Summer 2010 Diary: 5/17/2010

I kept a fairly detailed journal of my trip to Israel in the summer of 2010, and having now been settled as Modern Orthodox for a while, I think it's time to post it on the Internet. I will be posting the original along with some stylistic edits since I wrote it short-hand in black, and I will be posting comments on the original from my current perspective in red.

5/17/2010

On the Plane

Okay, it's NOT easy to lay tefillin on an airplane. After "waking up" (I believe the quotes are because I didn't get much sleep. I should've done what Daniella B. did and take some Tylenol PM to knock me right out), I absolutely had to, if only because on El Al, I could do so without fear of bringing the plane down (unlike the tefillin bomber).

I had some interesting conversations on the plane. First there was a brief situation where my blow-up pillow managed to go flying into a Haredi guy, I apologized and was rather flustered, but he was all cool, saying "אין דבר. בסדר" with a big grin. This was at the beginning of the flight.

But the real conversation was later. First, a Haredi guy named "Duvid," with a u, no last name to protect him (even in my hard copy) sitting across from us in the other row works as a plumber in Brooklyn. He says it's a "cash business, no taxes." Has "goy" helpers-he prefers the Mexicans as they are, in his opinion, better workers. Second, a guy named Sam Cohen (name is common enough that I can post it, I think) doing Birthright as well, albeit on a different trip. Sitting next to him and talking with him is what I figure must be a young dati leumi woman (pregnant with her second child, I think 25). I also remember that her name was Or, which I thought and still think is a boy's name, girls name should be Ora, no? Also, how could I have not written down how/to what extent/whether her hair was covered!!!! ;) she was born in Israel, served but then got married to an American and taught at a yeshiva/day school in New York. 

Crazy dynamic with this Haredi guy and Sam Cohen and his amazement at Sam's total lack of knowledge about Judaism. 

Oh, and weirdly, despite Mr. Ahmadinejad's rhetoric, El Al has NOT wiped Iran off of its virtual map in the video screen. 

Obama's Meetings with Netanyahu

A handy list of the 9 meetings I'm aware of: May 2009, September 2009, November 2009, March 2010, July 2010, September 2010, May 2011, September 2011, March 2012. I don't think he's met with any other head of state that many times, but I could be wrong

1960-1980 Gap in GOP Platform Even More Shocking than 1980-2012 Gap

The New York Times today pointed out the major shift rightward from the 1980 GOP platform, which at the time was seen as a major victory for conservatives. I decided to see what the 1960 GOP platform looked like, and the results are, to say the least, utterly shocking.

On Israel

In the Middle East, we shall continue to support the integrity and independence of all the states of that area including Israel and the Arab States.
With specific reference to Israel and the Arab Nations we urge them to undertake negotiations for a mutually acceptable settlement of the causes of tension between them. We pledge continued efforts:

• To eliminate the obstacles to a lasting peace in the area, including the human problem of the Arab refugees. (emphasis mine)
• To seek an end to transit and trade restrictions, blockades and boycotts.
• To secure freedom of navigation in international waterways, the cessation of discrimination against Americans on the basis of religious beliefs, and an end to the wasteful and dangerous arms race and to the threat of an arms imbalance in the area.

Economic Policy

... To that end we favor: Use of the full powers of government to prevent the scourges of depression and inflation.

Labor (Yes, they actually had a plank on that)

Republican action has given to millions of American working men and women new or expanded protection and benefits, such as:

• Increased federal minimum wage;
• Extended coverage of unemployment insurance and the payment of additional temporary benefits provided in 1958-59;
• Improvement of veterans' re-employment rights;
• Extension of federal workman's compensation coverage and increase of benefits;

...
Seven past years of accomplishments, however, are but a base to build upon in fostering, promoting and improving the welfare of America's working men and women, both organized and unorganized. We pledge, therefore, action on these constructive lines: ...

• Upward revision in amount and extended coverage of the minimum wage to several million more workers.
• Strengthening the unemployment insurance system and extension of its benefits.
• Improvement of the eight-hour laws relating to hours and overtime compensation on federal and federally-assisted construction, and continued vigorous enforcement and improvement of minimum wage laws for federal supply and construction contracts
• Continued improvement of manpower skills and training to meet a new era of challenges, including action programs to aid older workers, women, youth, and the physically handicapped.
• Encouragement of training programs by labor, industry and government to aid in finding new jobs for persons dislocated by automation or other economic changes.
• Improvement of job opportunities and working conditions of migratory farm workers.
• Assurance of equal pay for equal work regardless of sex; encouragement of programs to insure on-the-job safety, and encouragement of the States to improve their labor standards legislation, and to improve veterans' employment rights and benefits.
• Encouragement abroad of free democratic institutions, higher living standards and higher wages through such agencies as the International Labor Organization, and cooperation with the free trade union movement in strengthening free labor throughout the world.

Various Other Issues

 Environment

We are confronted with major problems in the field of environmental health. We pledge:

• Strengthened federal enforcement powers in combatting water pollution and additional resources for research and demonstration projects. Federal grants for the construction of waste disposal plants should be made only when they make an identifiable contribution to clearing up polluted streams.
•  Federal authority to identify, after appropriate hearings, air pollution problems and to recommend proposed solutions. 

Immigration

Republican conscience and Republican policy require that:

• The annual number of immigrants we accept be at least doubled.

Long History in GOP of "Legitimate Rape" Victims Don't Become Pregnant

Now, in addition to being unbelievably offensive for implying that there's such a thing as rape that's not "legitimate rape", Todd Akin also seems to be quite wrong on the science. The most recent study (admittedly slightly at odds with previous studies on the subject) found rape victims are twice as likely to become pregnant as women having consensual unprotected sex.

But this "'actual' rape victims don't get pregnant" idea has a long, long history in the GOP.

• U.S. Senator Dewey Bartlett (R-Oklahoma), 1975: "A person who is raped very seldom becomes pregnant. Statistics show it's very rare."
• State Representative Steven Freind (R-Pennsylvania), 1988: "The reason, Freind said, is that the traumatic experience of rape causes a woman to 'secrete a certain secretion' that tends to kill sperm."
• State Senator and U.S. Senate candidate Fay Boozman(R-Arkansas), 1998: "An adrenalin rush triggered by fear causes hormonal changes that block a woman's ability to conceive during a violent attack, Republican state Sen. Fay Boozman said Thursday. He denied a newspaper report that he had attributed the phenomenon to 'God's little protective shield.'"
• State Representative Henry Alridge (R-North Carolina), 1995: "The facts show that people who are raped -- who are truly raped -- the juices don't flow, the body functions don't work and they don't get pregnant"
• Georgia State Senator Don Thomas (R-Dalton), who apparently is/was a physician, 2003: "[Senator Thomas] argued against exempting rape victims from the law; he said rape victims are unlikely to become pregnant because their bodies are not prepared for intercourse. "

It has also shown up in letters to the editor

Talmud Censorship and Variation in Berachot 7

I have decided to attempt learning Daf Yomi, and I hope to at least get through the first tractate (and hence the first Order, since only the first is part of Daf Yomi, as there was no Gemara written in the Babylonian Talmud for the rest of the Order Zeraim [Seeds, which deals largely with laws of Agriculture which largely applies only to the Land of Israel]. Today's daf (page) is page 7 (both sides) of Berachot (blessings). Until I get back to Atlanta, at which point I may begin ordering the new Koren Talmud, I have been learning it by listening to Rabbi Eliyahu Fink's shiur while following along on a printout of Shas Neharda (Moznaim Publishing, 2008), which is primarily as far as I can tell the Vilna Edition of the Talmud with some extra commentary both on the sides of the pages (in particular, when the Talmud references part of the Tanach (24 books of Hebrew bible), it quotes the entire verse with vowels) and presumably in the back as well.

Anyway, I was on the first side, about two thirds of the way down, when I ran into something that confused me. On the paper in front of me it said:

א"ר יוחנן משום ר' יוסי שלשה דברים בקש משה מלפני הקב"ה ונתן לו בקש שתשרה שכינה על ישראל ונתן לו שנאמר הלוא בלכתך עמנו בקש שלא תשרה שכינה על עובדי כוכבים שנאמר ונפלינו אני ועמך ונתן לו בקש להודיעו דרכיו של הקב"ה ונתן לו שנא' הודיעני נא את דרכיך

R. Yochanan further said in the name of R. Yosi: Moses requested three things from the Holy One, Blessed Be He, and He gave them to him. He requested that the Divine Presence would remain among the people of Israel and it was given, as it says, "Is it not that you go with us." He requested that the Divine Presence would not remain among the idolaters [literally: worshippers of the stars], as it says "So that we are distinguished, myself and your people". He asked to know the ways of the Holy One, Blessed Be He, and He gave it, as it says "Show me the ways"

However, Rav Fink read the bolded section as

בקש שלא תשרה שכינה על אומות העולם שנאמר ונפלינו אני ועמך ונתן לו
He requested that the Divine Presence would not remain among the nations of the world, as it says ...

I was confused, but then I remembered that manuscripts of the Talmud has more variants in the text than the Masoretic text of the Tanach (where they even tell you when something is supposed to be read as if it was spelled differently than the way it is printed). In fact, Googling the phrase as he read it led me to the Yalkut Shimoni, (see Wiki page) a medieval rabbinical compilation of aggadot on the Torah (difficult to translate, but legends/stories/exegesis on the text rather than halachot [laws]), quotes this section of the Talmud, with "nations of the world" instead of "idolaters." This version seems to present a somewhat more narrow version of things. By excluding only idolaters from having the Divine Presence among them, the Muslims, Sikhs and (possibly) the Christians [presumably at least the Unitarians] may still merit it, but by excluding the nations of the world, it would seem that only the Jewish people merit it.

But it may have been more than a variation. By this, I mean that fear of, or active participation of the non-Jewish censors may have played a role. An edition of the Babylonian Talmud printed in Amsterdam in 1714 has the bolded section as

בקש שלא תשרה שכינה רק על ישראל שנאמר ונפלינו אני ועמך ונתן לו
He requested that the Divine Presence should not stay anywhere except on the Jewish people" ...

An edition from Prague in 1728 has

בקש שלא תשרה שכינה אז רק על ישראל
He requested that the Divine Presence should not stay anywhere then except on the Jewish people" ...

This is interesting because it seems like they're saying it only applied then and didn't apply to the time it was printed (this was almost certainly the censors/out of fear.

And the first printed edition (there are older hand-written manuscripts but I don't think those can be found online although I could be wrong), by Daniel Bomberg in Venice in 1523? It has אומות העולם (nations of the world), just like in whatever edition Rav Fink was using. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find it in an edition he could plausibly be using; perhaps it's not in the Hebrewbooks library? Update: Hebrew U has apparently scanned a whole bunch of Talmud manuscripts (site itself is Hebrew navigation only) in their Online Treasury of Talmud Manuscripts. Awesome!