Apparently there are 400 Arab-Israelis living in the West Bank

At least that's what this from the Central Bureau of Statistics seems to say

18th Knesset Election Results in the West Bank

I noticed a confused soul on Twitter today claim the following:

@matanlurey Beitanu is fringe because the source of their support is the West Bank, numberwise that makes them fringe like Shas.

— Roei Eisenberg (@roeberg) November 18, 2012

Assuming "Beitanu (sic)" refers to Yisrael Beitenu, that's simply not true. Beitenu came in 3rd overall, with 11.7% of the vote in the most recent elections, those to 18th Knesset which took place February 10, 2009.But they came in 6th in the West Bank, according to my calculations. While Israel's election site doesn't provide that information explicitly, it was easy to calculate.

I began with the precinct-level results, a comma-separated value file available from the Knesset website. Then under, קובץ הישובים here, I got a file containing the names of each locality in Israel, as well as the official "symbol number" for the locality (which also appears in the precinct-level results file), and importantly which מחוז (region/district) each locality is in. Region 7 is the West Bank. From there it was some easy spreadsheet calculations.

The details of the calculation can be found online here in a Google Doc. However, I'll reproduce the results in the West Bank here (all other parties, including Hadash and the Arab parties, got less than 0.5%, unsurprisingly)

1. Likud-31,406 (26.42%)
2. National Union-23,664 (19.91%)
3. United Torah Judaism-16,021 (13.48%)
4. Shas-13,285 (11.18%)
5. Kadima-10,195 (8.58%)
6. Yisrael Beitenu-9,624 (8.10%)
7. Habayit Hayehudi-9,262 (7.79%)
8. Labour-2,784 (2.34%)
9. Green Movement-Meimad-661 (.56%)
10. Meretz 626 (.53%)

So Beitenu actually did significantly worse in the West Bank.

Precincts where Romney or Obama got 0 votes

Some Republicans have been yelling FRAUD because Mitt Romney got 0 votes in 59 precincts in Philadelphia. Now, while a lack of voter ID might allow someone to commit voter fraud by voting twice, it wouldn't have prevented a Romney supporter from casting a vote for him. Nevertheless, a bunch of Republicans on the Internet are claiming that there's no way this would happen unless there was fraud.

The more reasonable explanation is, of course, as follows:

• Urban African-American voters are extremely overwhelmingly Democratic, even more so than African-Americans as a whole. In 2004, John Kerry won the overall African-American vote 88-11 according to the exit polls, but in Ward 7 and Ward 8, where 95%+ of the voters were black (most of the whites in Ward 8 at the time were at Bolling Air Force base and I believe vote absentee at home), but won Ward 7 and Ward 8 with over 95% of the vote, keeping Bush under 4% in both of them, getting over 97% in some of the wards
• As the first black president/general election major-party presidential candidate, Obama's support among African-Americans is/was even higher than normal for a Democrat
• The GOP's racism, from blatant remarks attacking urban black voters to Republican elected officials around the country embracing birtherism and other more subtle remarks/issues, probably made even some of the (few) conservative urban blacks think twice about voting Republican this year

The combination of these factors makes it quite plausible that in plenty of smaller near-100% black urban precincts, Romney may have lacked even one supporter

Indeed, it wasn't just in swing state urban precincts like the 59 in Philadelphia, 9 in Cleveland or precincts in the safely Democratic but admittedly known for fraud Chicago (37), where Romney got 0 votes Incidentally, because DC's precincts are rather large, the worst Romney did in a DC precinct was 3 votes. But precincts in solidly red states where Romney nevertheless failed to get a single vote include

• Jefferson County, AL (Birmingham and suburbs) (9)-Precinct 136 [Obama 245, Romney 0, 1 write-in vote], Precinct 157 [Obama 18, Romney 0], Precinct 180 [Obama 165, Romney 0, 1 write-in], Precinct 197 ( [Obama 242, Romney 0], Precinct 206 [Obama 37, Romney 0], Precinct 256 [Obama 315, Romney 0, Johnson 1], Precinct 313 [Obama 406, Romney 0, Goode 1], Precinct 348 [Obama 305, Romney 0, Stein 1], Precinct 351 [Obama 69, Romney 0]
• Pulaski County, AR (Little Rock) (1) 0130 [Obama 474, Other 2]
• Fulton County, GA (most of Atlanta and suburbs) (6), Precinct 01C2 of Atlanta [Obama 4, Romney 0], Precinct CP83 (College Park) [Obama 327, Romney 0], Precinct SC08C (unincorporated South Fulton County) [Obama 88, Romney 0], Precinct SC17A (unincorporated South Fulton County) [Obama 44, Romney 0], Precinct SC30A [Obama 93, Romney 0], Precinct UC02B [Obama 5, Romney 0]
• Dallas County, TX (22)-Precincts 1303-5406, 1707-5484, 2800-5961, 3110-6289, 3921-6638, 4104-6874, 1124-5361,1502-5446, 3015-6093, 3401-6415, 4116-6892, 4118-6895, 3094-6251, 3109-6285, 3200-6298, 4105-6875, 4537-6893, 4030-6747, 1105-5306, 4109-6881, 3025-6111, 3028-6114 [mostly very small precincts, Obama 703 Romney 0 in all 22 combined]
• Lake County, IN (Gary) (7) 132-G2-05 [Obama 193, Romney 0], 139-G2-15 [Obama 284, Romney 0, Johnson 1], 142-G2-18 [Obama 332, Romney 0], 153-G3-11 [Obama 390, Romney 0], 163-G3-25 [Obama 205, Romney 0, Johnson 1, write-in 1], 172-G4-13 [Obama 323, Romney 0], 174-G4-15 [Obama 264, Romney 0]
• Jefferson County, KY (Louisville) (4) H151 [Obama 1], L140 [Obama 325], M155 [Obama 153], M157 [Obama 5], N138 [Obama 42]
• Allen Parish, LA(1) 02-05 [Obama 101, Romney 0]
• Ascension Parish, LA(1) 00-74 [Obama 123, Romney 0]
• Avoyelles Parish, LA(1) 02-02 [Obama 4, Romney 0]
• Bienville Parish, LA (1) 03-07 [Obama 10, Romney 0]
• Caddo Parish, LA (Shreveport) (2) 00-001 [Obama 310, Romney 0], 00-060 [Obama 565, Romney 0, Johnson 1]
• Calcasieu Parish, LA (Lake Charles) (1) 00-303W [Obama 116, Romney 0]
• Concordia Parish, LA (1) 00 4-4B [Obama 9, Romney 0]
• East Baton Rouge Parish, LA (Baton Rouge) (3) 01 010 A [Obama 356, Romney 0], 01 032 A [Obama 394, Romney 0], 01 100 A [Obama 414, Romney 0, Johnson 1]
• East Carroll Parish, LA (3) 00 10 [Obama 208, Romney 0], 00 11 [Obama 126, Romney 0], 00 12 [Obama 90, Romney 0]
• Evangeline Parish, LA (1) 01 1110 [Obama 557, Romney 0, Stein 4, Other 1]
• Jackson Parish, LA (4) 00 06A [Obama 31, Romney 0], 00 19C [Obama 1, Romney 0], 00 20 [Obama 68, Romney 0], 00 20 B [Obama 9, Romney 0]
• Lincoln Parish, LA (7) 01 08 [Obama 3] 01 09 [Obama 17], 04 07 [Obama 44], 09 09 [Obama 104], 09 11 [Obama 8], 10 06 [Obama 54], 11 08 [Obama 24]
• Madison Parish, LA (7) 00 15A [Obama 19], 00 16 [Obama 17], 00 18 [Obama 39], 00 19A [Obama 62], 00 20 [Obama 260], 00 22 [Obama 111, Johnson 1], 00 23 [Obama 75]
• Morehouse Parish, LA (1) 00 17 [Obama 16]
• Natchitoches Parish, LA (2) 01 05 [Obama 190], 04 02 [Obama 243]
• Orleans Parish, LA (New Orleans) (22) 02 06 [Obama 344, Stein 1, Johnson 1], O2 06 A [Obama 45], 05 04 [Obama 68], 05 07 [Obama 294], 08 09 [Obama 370], 09 05 [Obama 202], 09 06B [Obama 105], 09 06D [Obama 152], 09 06F [Obama 137], 09 08A [Obama 210], 09 28E [Obama 299], 09 31B [Obama 205], 09 35 [Obama 137], 09 35A [Obama 221], 09 43M [Obama 441], 09 43N [Obama 337], 10 13 [Obama 253], 10 14 [Obama 235], 11 12 [Obama 252, Other 1], 11 13 [Obama 210], 17 11 [Obama 341, Johnson 3], 17 13A [Obama 259, Stein 1, Johnson 1] Note many of them are in the 9th ward, the mostly black ward that Hurricane Katrina pretty much destroyed, not so surprising nobody there has forgiven the GOP
• Pointe Coupee Parish, LA (2) 00 08B [Obama 69], 00 13C [Obama 35]
• Rapides Parish, LA (1) 00 C08 [Obama 207],
• St. James Parish, LA (2) 00 07A [Obama 126], 00 17B [Obama 4]
• St. John the Bapist Parish, LA (1) 04 12 [Obama 18]
• St. Landry Parish, LA (1) 01 07 [Obama 359, Goode 1, Other 1]
• St. Martin Parish, LA (1) 03 9 [Obama 39]
• St. Mary Parish, LA (1) 00 46 [Obama 184]
• Tensas Parish, LA (2) 00 05 B [Obama 13, Stein 1], 00 12B [Obama 1]
• Terrebonne Parish, LA (1) 00 115 [Obama 40]
• West Baton Rouge Parish, LA (2) 00 25A [Obama 28], 00 33A [Obama 5]
• West Feliciana Parish, LA (1) [Obama 107, Stein 2, Other 1]

Additional note for GOP conspiracy theorists/voter fraud types: there were numerous (mostly rather small, the largest I saw had 40 votes for Romney) precincts across Louisiana (and elsewhere) in which President Obama received 0 votes; again, not a conspiracy/voter fraud, but showing just how little support Obama got in many deep South/rural white precincts. Here's a list of some of these precincts:

• Ascension Parish, LA 0060 [Romney 3, Obama 0]
• Assumption Parish, LA 05 05 [Romney 19, Obama 0]
• Beauregard Parish, LA 0018 A [Romney 35, Obama 0]
• Caldwell Parish, LA07 03A [Romney 13, Obama 0]
• Catahoula Parish, LA 01 3 [Romney 4, Obama 0], 03 3 [Romney 4, Obama 0]
• East Feliciana Parish, LA 00 07C [Romney 6, Obama 0]
• Evangeline Parish, LA 03 3071 [Romney 11, Obama 0]
• Franklin Parish, LA 00 18 [Romney 10, Obama 0]
• Grant Parish, La 07 7 [Romney 17, Obama 0], 08 1 [Romney 19, Obama 0], 08 5 [Romney 13, Obama 0]
• Jackson Parish, LA 00 24 [Romney 63, Obama 0]
• La Salle Parish, LA 09 04 [Romney 12, Obama 0], 09 05 [Romney 40, Obama 0]
• Livingston Parish, LA 01 05 [Romney 2], 01 06 [Romney 2], 01 11 [Romney 1], 06 09 [Romney 2], 07 03 [Romney 12, Goode 2], 08 10 [Romney 2], 08 12 [Romney 12], 08 13 [Romney 1], 08 14 [Romney 3], 11 05 [Romney 4]
• St. Martin Parish, LA 07 02B [Romney 21, Johnson 1]
• Tangipahoa Parish, LA 00 106B [Romney 11]
• Tensas Parish, LA 00 01B [Romney 8]
• Terrebonne Parish, LA 00 096 [Romney 10], 00 104 [Romney 26], 00 108 [Romney 1]
• Union Parish, LA 00 15A [Romney 9], 00 21 [Romney 21]
• Jasper County, MS Moss First [Romney 37, Obama 0]
• Carbon County, WY Hanna Town Hall 6-1 [Romney 25, Johnson 1]
• Crook County, WY Oshoto Community Building 26-26 [Romney 54, Johnson 2, Write-in 1]
• Niobara County, WY Warren - Renard's Garage 1-2 [Romney 60]

If places like St. Louis city, Shelby County, TN (Memphis), Harris County, TX (Houston) had precinct results available (and the precincts weren't too large), I'm sure they had precincts with 0 votes for Romney as well

There are no "Reagan Democrats" in Western Pennsylvania

The Romney campaign's attempt to win Pennsylvania has been described as everything from expanding the map to the same last-minute attempt every Republican has made since 1992, in this case due to his inability to pick off OH, IA, WI and a lack of ad saturation in PA, plus the lack of an early vote in the state.

Whichever of these descriptions is true, a common theme in articles giving Romney a shot at Pennsylvania discuss the legions of "Reagan Democrats" that supposedly exist in Western Pennsylvania.

Third, Romney would need to win the other swing bloc, conservative male Democrats concentrated in the Western part of the state around Pittsburgh, Johnstown, and Erie. Once known as “Reagan Democrats,” they’re older, blue-collar, and socially conservative.

In order for Western Pennsylvania to be considered a "Reagan Democrat" area, Ronald Reagan would have needed to have performed well there in comparison to his national performance (as well as in comparison to other Republicans). He did not manage that. In fact, Reagan's performance in Western Pennsylvania (relative to his national performance) was about as bad as it gets; they were anti-Reagan Democrats. In 1984, Mondale won Western Pennsylvania by 6.6 points, a better margin than Carter in 1976 or Gore in 2000 (both of whom won the state), and far better in comparison to his national performance than any other Democrat.

The following graph shows how many points over (or in the case of Obama in 2008 in Western PA, under) their national performance the Democratic candidate for president performed in Western Pennsylvania and in Pennsylvania as a whole. Incidentally, notice that Pennsylvania has been more Democratic than the nation in every election from 1960 to 2008, though usually not by more than a few points. Only five other states (New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Rhode Island) have been consistently more Democratic than the nation as a whole in those 13 elections (Hawaii was narrowly more Republican in 1960, and has been more Democratic in the last 12).

However, the path to Democratic victory in Pennsylvania has changed somewhat. Before 1996 was come out of Philly + suburbs with at least an 8 point margin and win in Northeast, and then the West would be enough to overcome the 20+ point deficit in Central PA (which James Carville famously referred to as "Alabama"). The new path, for Obama in 2012 is going to be: massive turnout in Philadelphia, split/slight win in the Philly suburbs, win Biden's birth region of Northeast PA by 10, hold central PA to like 15 point deficit, and avoid losing by more than a few in Western PA

Call them Democrats who got shafted by NAFTA (note the precipitous proportional decline for Clinton between 1992 and 1996) or Democrats who cling to their guns and religion, as Obama described them, or for that matter, do as the late Jack Murtha, who knew the area about as well as anyone, and call them racist Democrats (Obama in 2008 was the first candidate to underperform in Western Pennsylvania relative to his nationwide performance since at least 1956, and probably earlier). But don't call them Reagan Democrats. They couldn't stand the guy.

Republicans in Congress Who Agree with Akin and Mourdock on Rape

While only a few Republican members of Congress have stated their views on pregnancies as a result of rape in as a despicable manner as Rep. Todd Akin and Senate candidate Richard Mourdock, most of them agree 100% that if a woman gets pregnant from rape, she has to continue the pregnancy and bear her rapist's child, and for that matter, agree with the "it's life, a gift from God" reasoning of Mourdock (how many they feel "only 'legitimate' rape is rape" is less clear)

Anyone who sponsors a bill changing the law to define life as beginning at conception is stating exactly that, and they ought to be asked to explain themselves to their consituents. My guess is most will sound just as offensive as Akin and Mourdock if they're forced to give an off-the-cuff explanation.

Roughly half the GOP caucus co-sponsored the Life at Conception Act

To implement equal protection for the right to life of each born and preborn human person

Where "human person" is defined as

The terms `human person' and `human being' include each and every member of the species homo sapiens at all stages of life, including the moment of fertilization, cloning, or other moment at which an individual member of the human species comes into being.

This act does have an exception which would technically allow a woman to perform an abortion on herself without committing a crime (although it appears doctors or anyone else involved, doctor, could be charged with murder or accessory to murder).

However, no such exception exists for the Sanctity of Human Life Act which has 66 sponsors.

Notable members of Congress (sponsors of either bill) who believe rape pregnancies are a gift and  are considered to be in potentially close races include

Todd Akin (of course), Roscoe Bartlett (MD-06), Joe Walsh (IL-08), Jeff Denham (CA-19), Allen West (FL-18), Dan Benishek (MI-01), Chip Cravaack (MN-08), Joseph Heck (NV-03), Jim Renacci (OH-16), Quico Canseco (TX-23), Daniel Webster (FL-10), Larry Buchson (IN-08), Steve King (IA-04), Michelle Bachmann (MN-06), Bill Johnson (OH-06), Sean Duffy (WI-07), Steve Southerland (FL-02), John Kline (MN-02), Bob Gibbs (OH-07), Kristi Noem (SD-AL), Scott DesJarlais (TN-04) [the guy who's pro-abortion when it comes to himself being in a sticky situation], Scott Rigell (VA-02), Reid Ribble (WI-08).

Israel Trip Summer 2010 Diary: 5/17/2010

I kept a fairly detailed journal of my trip to Israel in the summer of 2010, and having now been settled as Modern Orthodox for a while, I think it's time to post it on the Internet. I will be posting the original along with some stylistic edits since I wrote it short-hand in black, and I will be posting comments on the original from my current perspective in red.

5/17/2010

On the Plane

Okay, it's NOT easy to lay tefillin on an airplane. After "waking up" (I believe the quotes are because I didn't get much sleep. I should've done what Daniella B. did and take some Tylenol PM to knock me right out), I absolutely had to, if only because on El Al, I could do so without fear of bringing the plane down (unlike the tefillin bomber).

I had some interesting conversations on the plane. First there was a brief situation where my blow-up pillow managed to go flying into a Haredi guy, I apologized and was rather flustered, but he was all cool, saying "אין דבר. בסדר" with a big grin. This was at the beginning of the flight.

But the real conversation was later. First, a Haredi guy named "Duvid," with a u, no last name to protect him (even in my hard copy) sitting across from us in the other row works as a plumber in Brooklyn. He says it's a "cash business, no taxes." Has "goy" helpers-he prefers the Mexicans as they are, in his opinion, better workers. Second, a guy named Sam Cohen (name is common enough that I can post it, I think) doing Birthright as well, albeit on a different trip. Sitting next to him and talking with him is what I figure must be a young dati leumi woman (pregnant with her second child, I think 25). I also remember that her name was Or, which I thought and still think is a boy's name, girls name should be Ora, no? Also, how could I have not written down how/to what extent/whether her hair was covered!!!! ;) she was born in Israel, served but then got married to an American and taught at a yeshiva/day school in New York. 

Crazy dynamic with this Haredi guy and Sam Cohen and his amazement at Sam's total lack of knowledge about Judaism. 

Oh, and weirdly, despite Mr. Ahmadinejad's rhetoric, El Al has NOT wiped Iran off of its virtual map in the video screen. 

Obama's Meetings with Netanyahu

A handy list of the 9 meetings I'm aware of: May 2009, September 2009, November 2009, March 2010, July 2010, September 2010, May 2011, September 2011, March 2012. I don't think he's met with any other head of state that many times, but I could be wrong