Saturday, November 22, 2008

CA-4: McClintock +1,793

Charlie Brown (Dem) 181,696
Tom McClintock (Rep) 183,489

as of Nov. 22, 2008, at 10:52 a.m., Pacific Standard Time

Seems I was indeed right to call it (unfortunately)

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

CA-4: McClintock +592

Charlie Brown (Dem) 169,533
Tom McClintock (Rep) 170,125

as of Nov. 19, 2008, at 7:52 a.m.

The 12 Anti-Lieberman Chairmanship Democrats

As everyone knows, there were only 12 who didn't vote to let him keep his chair.

They are

Monday, November 17, 2008

CA-4: McClintock +622

Charlie Brown (Dem) 169,335
Tom McClintock (Rep) 169,957

as of Nov. 17, 2008, at 11:41 a.m.

This may have been the last of the outstanding votes from Nevada County.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

CA-4: McClintock +691

Some of El Dorado County came in last evening.

Charlie Brown (Dem) 168,808
Tom McClintock (Rep) 169,499

as of Nov. 15, 2008, at 1:20 p.m.

Friday, November 14, 2008

CA-4: McClintock +569

Charlie Brown (Dem) 168,378
Tom McClintock (Rep) 168,947

as of Nov. 14, 2008, at 4:22 p.m., Pacific Standard Time.

This was as a result of an updated reported from Sacramento County, a sliver of which is in California's 4th district (a more conservative part)

Again, it still doesn't look so good for Charlie Brown, unfortunately.

Ca-4: McClintock +533

Most of the outstanding votes in Nevada County have come in

Charlie Brown (Dem) 168,335
Tom McClintock (Rep) 168,868

the other counties with outstanding votes went narrowly for Tom McClintock, and so sadly, he's likely to win this.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Ca-4: McClintock +1248

Charlie Brown (Dem) 166,536
Tom McClintock (Rep) 167,784

as of Nov. 13, 2008, at 7:09 p.m. Pacific Standard Time

I remain in the position of having called it for McClintock

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

AK-Sen: Begich +3

I think we're gonna take this seat, because apparently today counted outstanding ballots from less Democratic areas (at least that's what Markos Moulitsas said, and he had data to back it hup).

Berkowitz has not decreased the margin appreciably, though. I guess there won't be a Frozen Chosen in Congress from Alaska :(

as of 3:36 p.m. Alaska Standard Time on November 12, 2008:

Begich + 3

Begich, Mark DEM 125019
Bird, Bob AI 10913
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 1076
Haase, Fred LIB 1961
Stevens, Ted REP 125016

Young +15,710

Berkowitz, Ethan A. DEM 118088
Wright, Don R. AI 11583
Young, Don E. REP 133798

CA-4: McClintock +928

Charlie Brown (Dem) 159,703
Tom McClintock (Rep) 160,631

Is Nevada County (which was the most recent report and where Charlie Brown did quite well) going to be enough for Brown to win?

That was about 1/5 of their outstanding ballots that just came in (I assume some ballots weren't counted and some didn't have a vote for Congress), and Brown only won those 54.2%-45.8%.

The other two counties in the district where Brown currently leads (Plumas and Sierra) had fully completed processing their ballots.

On the other hand, most of the other counties in the district (except for Modoc and Lassen, which McClintock won handily and which have finished processing) also have outstanding ballots and Brown is losing in them (although not by that large of a margin)

I tend to doubt it, but it's not impossible.

Monday, November 10, 2008

CA-4: Calling it for McClintock (+1094)

Charlie Brown (Dem) 158,646
Tom McClintock (Rep) 159,738

as of Nov. 10, 2008, at 10:11 p.m.

McClintock seems to be pulling away; I'm going to risk my personal credibility a tinge and call it for him.

CA-4: McClintock +970

It doesn't look good, Charlie Brown.

Charlie Brown (Dem) 156,409
Tom McClintock (Rep) 157,379

as of Nov. 10, 2008, at 1:09 p.m., Pacific Standard Time.

A net of 81 votes for McClintock.

MN-Sen: Norm Coleman +206

AL FRANKEN 1211359

as of

11/10/2008 2:31:18 PM Central Standard Time.

Senate Musical Committee Chairs caused by Byrd, Biden, possible Lieberman exits

Joe Biden, though he won re-election (like the other guy named Joe who ran as the Vice President and concurrently ran for re-election), will become Vice President next year, opening up the Foreign Relations Committee chair.

Robert Byrd has now entered the "Strom Thurmond" mode of his Senate career, though to be crude, Democrats don't care nearly as much about his health as Republicans cared about Strom Thurmond's, because

a) Democrats have a more significant majority than the Republicans (in 2000 it was 50-50 until Jeffords left the party)

b) West Virginia re-elected Democratic Governor Joe Manchin, so if Byrd dies, he'll be replaced by another Democrat; had Thurmond kicked it between 1999 and 2003, Jim Hodges would've appointed a Democrat to replace him.

Anyway, befitting that mode's status, Byrd will no longer be chairing the Senate Appropriations Committee.

That goes to Dan Inouye of Hawaii, octogenarian war hero and more recently, defender of Republican convicted felon Ted Stevens.

As Inouye chaired the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation during the 110th Congress, that seat becomes open; it's unclear whether Inouye, Rockefeller, or a future chair was/will be the first chairman of the committee in charge of regulating the Internet who knows how to use it (since John McCain and Ted Stevens clearly could not, and I doubt Fritz Hollings could in 01-02; unless Pressler could in 1995-1996 (unlikely) that means there was never one at least until this Congress).

Rockefeller is currently Chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence, which would then apparently go to Senator Dianne Feinstein of California, who currently chairs the Rules Committee.

That committee is likely to be chaired by Chuck Schumer, the highest-ranking Democrat on the Committee neither in Strom Thurmond mode or chairing a different Committee.

The chairman replacing Joe Biden on Foreign Relations is not as clear.

Should Barack Obama appoint Senator Kerry to be Secretary of State (there are rumors that he's angling for it but it is by no means a sure thing), it would go to quite liberal Senator Russell Feingold of Wisconsin.

Otherwise, it would go to Kerry, who currently chairs the Small Business Committee; most senior member not currently chairing a Committee (and nobody's going to want to switch to Small Business chair) is Mary Landrieu of Louisiana.

If Lieberman is kicked out of his committee chairmanship, it's also unclear. If Daniel Akaka of Hawaii wants to switch from being chair of Veteran's Affairs, it would go to him, and he'd be replaced on Veterans Affairs by Patty Murray of Washington.

Otherwise, it would go to Tom Carper of Delaware.

Mn-Sen: Norm Coleman +207

AL FRANKEN 1211357

As of 11/10/2008 2:00:27 PM Central Standard Time

Darn it ...

CA-4: McClintock now up 889 votes

Charlie Brown (Dem) 156,360
Tom McClintock (Rep) 157,249

as of 11/10/08, 10:09 AM PST

Darn it. Wasn't it closer ...

MN-Sen: Coleman back up to +206

AL FRANKEN 1211356

as of 11/10/2008 12:44:15 PM Central Standard Time

MN-Sen: Norm Coleman's Lead Down to 204

AL FRANKEN 1211356


Friday, November 7, 2008

MN-Sen: Norm Coleman's Lead down to 221

AL FRANKEN 1211335

as of 6:22:16 PM Central Standard Time on 11/7/2008.

MN-Sen: Al Franken nets a vote; Coleman +238.

As of 3:35 p.m. CST, 11/7/08:

AL FRANKEN 1211304

Minnesota Senate Update: Coleman +239

Darn it, that's a net of 3 for Coleman since last night.

The current totals as of the 11:48:15 Central Standard Time release on 11/7/2008:

AL FRANKEN 1211301

I really, really want this seat for the Democratic wing of the Democratic party for the sake of the late, great Paul Wellstone.