Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Michigan Dem Exit Polls: African-Americans 70% Uncommitted

The exit polls are pretty interesting in Michigan.

If everyone had been on the ballot, the exit polls say it would have been Clinton 45, Obama 37, Edwards 12, but 41% of Edwards supporters and 17% of Obama supporters chose either Clinton or Kucinich.

Most things were pretty unsurprising. Uncommitted did better among the young, the urban, those with more education, and those making at least $50,000 a year.

But the African-American vote going 70% for uncommitted compared to 26% for Clinton was very surprising.

I'm not sure what the shift away from Clinton (and it is away from Clinton in this case since Obama wasn't on the ballot) was due to.

I have two theories:

1. African-Americans have solid, hardcore support for Obama to such a large extent that they'd prefer a proxy vote for him to a vote for Clinton
2. The Clinton campaign's tactics and remarks have been disastrous for her among African-Americans.

What are your thoughts?

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