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Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Tense about Indiana

Don't get me wrong, I like the exits (show a 5-6 point Hillary win, not good enough for her) but

a) the early ones always seem to be off favoring Obama

b) I certainly don't trust the exits showing a 4 point gender gap in such a white state (in blacker states, there's a much smaller gender gap because black women are far more likely to vote [and indeed to be able to vote due to felony disenfranchisement laws] than are black men)

c) I don't really trust the Catholic numbers either; they seem to show Obama doing better with white catholics than white Protestants

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