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Monday, June 23, 2008

Obama's "Drop" in Oregon and SUSA sampling.

The latest SurveyUSA poll (conducted June 17th to June 19th of 547 likely voters) of Oregon has Barack Obama narrowly leading John McCain 48-45.

This seems like a significant drop from the poll a month ago (May 16 to May 18th of 600 likely voters) which had Senator Obama leading John McCain 49-39

However, a look at the crosstabs makes it seem like differences in the poll results are due mostly to changes in the samples.

By Party:

Party May June
Dem 48% 42%
Rep 32% 41%
Ind 20% 15%

Such a shift in the Republicans favor is highly unlikely (a shift in the Democrats favor would still be unlikely, if a bit less so).

Which one is right?

Well, currently in Oregon, Democrats have a 43% to 33% registration advantage, so one expects the correct party divisions are somewhere in between the May and June numbers.

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