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Sunday, February 27, 2011

Why is Michael Lynch still given the opportunity to write about oil?

I am absolutely shocked and disgusted that the New York Times would let Michael C. Lynch write an opinion article on oil and energy.

Now, it's one thing to have conservatives writing op-eds espousing conservative policies. It is another thing to let complete fools and failures like Michael C. Lynch with massive, massive past failures pretending to be experts on energy and writing outright lies.

Now, it wouldn't be fair if I said that without backing it up. So let's take a look at Mr. Lynch's past.

Back in November 1997, Mr. Lynch is quoted in Business Week as saying:

''Oil-price forecasters make sheep seem like independent thinkers,'' gibes Massachusetts Institute of Technology energy researcher Michael C. Lynch. ''There's no evidence that mineral prices rise over time. Technology always overwhelms depletion.''

Notice that he didn't just limit this prognostication to his own field of energy. He made the claim that this holds for mineral prices in general. Now, take a look at the relative real prices (i.e. adjusted for inflation using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data) for four important minerals (crude oil, gold, copper, aluminum) over the last 25 years, with the baseline in November 1997. Note: the prices for the commodities can be found here

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Now, obviously the prices of these minerals have been influenced to a large extent by general market factors; in particular, copper and crude oil took an especially large price drop (because the Great Recession caused a major demand reduction). Nevertheless, for gold, copper and crude, we've not seen technology overwhelm depletion; all 3 are (even when inflation is accounted for as it is in the above graph) costing about 3 times what they were in 1997, with a general rise starting in 2000. Only aluminum (one of the most abundant elements on the planet, although much of it is not easily accessible) has more or less remained the same.

However, that's not the worst of Mr. Lynch's failures.



Why is Mr. Lynch a massive failure? Take a look at this article from Forbes in October of 2006.

Don't sell that SUV just yet. Oil, at a recent $66.50 a barrel, will fall to $45 by mid-2007 and could dip briefly into the 20s in 2008. Sometime next year you are going to see a $1.95 price on a gas pump.

So says Michael C. Lynch, 51, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Amherst, Mass. He swears he hasn't been inhaling fumes. His reasoning: New supply, coming online from all corners of the world, is more than ample to satisfy growth in demand and sufficient even to withstand an embargo against Iran, which produces 3.75 million barrels of oil a day. Lynch argues that the threat of disruptions--nuclear brinkmanship, war, terrorism, hurricanes, pipeline corrosion--has larded oil prices with a $20-a-barrel risk premium. As these perils recede, oil prices will fall.

Of course, as you may remember, we didn't see $1.95 in 2007. We saw in the $70 range in mid-2007, and a RISE into the 120s in 2008. The only reason we briefly got even close to his numbers in late 2008/early 2009 was because demand plummeted thanks to the financial crisis/recession. We never saw these "new supplies," and as demand began picking up again, so did prices. And these "new supplies" are in the form of oil shale/oil sands which are far worse pollution-wise than regular oil, and riskier and riskier deep-sea, which we just saw worked out just great this summer.

Yes, Libya/Algeria are a temporary thing (unless they aren't ...), but if relatively smaller producing countries like them result in these kind of price increases, what happens if there's a revolution in Saudi Arabia?

Much to the satisfaction of the peak-oil crowd, the Obama administration is throwing federal subsidies — some $8 billion in its 2012 budget — at all sorts of unproven, unrealistic and inefficient energy technologies like wind farms and electric cars.

Now, even putting his and everyone else's stupidity on climate aside, the man is still silly.

Yeah, so unrealistic/inefficient/unproven is wind; clearly it was the Bush administration's (nonexistent) massive federal wind program that has increased the percentage of U.S. electricity from wind from 0.17% in 2001 to 2.25% in the 12 months ending November 2010 (and growing); still not much, of course, but on the other hand, Libya produces only about 2.1% of world oil and yet it's still having a real effect.

As for electric cars, they're hard to prove without building/encouraging a charging infrastructure, but they are about to start being marketed even without the infrastructure.

Friday, February 25, 2011

List of Libyan Ambassador Resignations

Below is a (non-exhaustive) list of Libyan ambassadors (and other officials) around the world who have resigned and/or broken with the Gadhafi regime as a result of the ongoing protests, with links to articles

Ambassadors/Etc Who Have Resigned


  • Arab League: Ambassador, Abdel-Moneim al-Houni resigned 2/20/2011; entire mission team resigned 2/25/2011
  • Bangladesh: AH Elimam, 2/22/2011
  • France: Mohamed Salaheddine Zarem, resigned 2/25/2011
  • India: Ali El-Assawi, resigned 2/21/2011
  • Indonesia: Salaheddin M El Bishari, resigned 2/23/2011
  • Jordan: Mohammad Hassan Barghathi, resigned 2/24/2011
  • Morocco: And 10 diplomatic staff members, 2/24/2011
  • Portugal: Ali Ibrahim Emdored, 2/25/2011
  • United Kingdom: some staff but not ambassador, 2/21/2011
  • UNESCO: Abdulsalam El Qallali, resigned 2/25/2011
  • UN Human Rights Council: Entire mission resigned 2/25/2011
  • United Nations: Several diplomatic staff including deputy Ambassador Omar Al-Dabashi (not the Ambassador, though), 2/21/2011
  • United States: Ali Suleiman Aujali, called for Gadhafi to quit, 2/22/2011

Ambassadors/Etc Supporting Gadhafi Regime


  • Brazil: Salem Ezubedi voiced support for regime 2/24/2011
  • Malta: Saadun Suayeh says Gadhafi must not go, 2/21/2011

Monday, February 14, 2011

Amusing and Interesting 2010 New York City Write-In Votes

New York City is one of all-too-few places that makes write-in vote totals publicly available on the Internet. I say all-too-few because write-in votes let you vote for whoever or whatever you want.

They don't have to be alive. They don't have to be real. It doesn't have to be a physical entity. You can even try to vote for a SQL injection

Anyway, interesting write-ins in New York City in 2010 include:

For Governor:
  • Big Bird
  • Constantine
  • Christopher Christie (Governor of New Jersey)
  • Dan Malloy (Governor of Connecticut)
  • Declined Phantom
  • Duke Nukem
  • Eternal Father & Lord
  • Full Public Funding
  • Fund Autism
  • Gay Marriage
  • God Jesus Christ
  • I Am Government Rachel E Boschey
  • I Object to No Term Limits
  • Ish Pee Pee (Unless this is actually a real person ...)
  • Lisa Murbowski (some joker referencing the write-in campaign in Alaska, intentionally misspelling Senator Murkowski's name, no doubt)
  • Norman H. Finkelstein (Ewwwwww!!!!)
  • Nuchem Rosenberg (ultra-Orthodox agitator against child abuse)
  • Pimky & the Brain
  • T. Party 
  • The Hippo at the Bronx
  • The Hoff (don't know what this is ...)
  • William Marly Tweed (a mistake for the last name of the man better known as Boss Tweed
For Senator (Schumer seat)

  • A (3 votes ...)
  • Boycott Parthed Israel! (shows the level of education and intelligence among that crowd ...)
  • D-Bag
  • Eternal Father & Lord
  • European America
  • Feisal Rauf (the imam-to-be at that controversial mosque)
  • Full Public Funding
  • Gay Marriage
  • Ham Sandwich
  • Harpo Marx
  • Ish Pee Pee (again)
  • Jeffrey Lebowski
  • Jimmy McMillan (5 votes, because the rent is too ... damn ... high)
  • King Kong
  • Lisa Murkowstz (same joker, varying) 
  • Lizard People (hell yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
  • Lord Jesus Christ the Son of God
  • Medicare for All
  • Miss Peggy
  • Mort Zucker-man (because of the spelling)
  • Noam Chousky 
  • Rachel Maddow of MSNBC
  • Ron Paul (because you gotta vote for him)
  • Single Payer
For Senator (Gillibrand seat)
  • Barack H. Obama
  • Bernard Madroff 
  • Captain Kirk
  • Caroline Kennedy (got like 18 votes under various name-spellings; guess she and her family were mad she wasn't appointed)
  • Free Palestine
  • Full Public Funding
  • HIS HOLINESS THE DALILAMA
  • Jack the Pumpkin King
  • Lady Ga Ga
  • None of the Foregoing (that's an amusing spelling)
  • RN
Other Races
  • (EXPLETIVE) Chanders (shame on New York for censoring!!!)
  • LEGAIIZE MARIIIANA
  • LEARNED HLND (if intended to be Learned Hand, amusing)
  • Lisa Munkowski (someone still having fun)
  • My Dog Karma
  • My Dog Riley
  • Non English Character (obviously it was actually some non-English character, shame on them for not letting Unicode handle it if possible)
  • Overturn Citizens United
  • Pee Wee Herman
  • Revolution
  • RX
  • Snake People 
  • Tim Lincicum
  • Bull Shit! (if they didn't censor that ...)
  • Immanuel Kant Liberal
  • Anyme But
  • Tony Soprano
  • Axl Rose
  • Comeone Qualifid 
  • Fiscus Tree
  • Fuhrer Williamsburg (heh)
  • Pupa Rabi (this was for Supreme Court, so maybe they want his Beit Din?)
  • Rabbi Judu Levin (please let this not have been an attempt to vote for Yehuda Levin ...)
  • Bernard Goetz
  • Biggie Smalls
  • Bono the Boston Terrier
  • Butt Head
  • Dick Hertz
  • Dick Hurtz
  • Frank Zappa
  • MR. X
  • OBI-WAN-KENOBI
  • RON JEREMY
  • SCUM
  • THE PEOPLE
  • YODA
  • SCREW GARY ACKERMAN (for Ackerman's seat in Congress)
  • Kodos (Don't blame him/her!)
  • George Habash (seriously??? And yet no votes for Meir Kahane?????)
  • George Orwell
  • Grimm
  • TRANNY NAMED KRISTEN
  • LORD VOLDEMORT
  • JUDGE REINHOLD (to be a judge, of course)
  •  
  • LIZARD PEOPLE (3 votes, hell yes I loves NYC)
  • NO SMOKING
  • NO LAWYERS
  • NOT HER
  • OFF THE PIG
  • ROBERT DROP THE STUDENTS (was this an attempted SQL injection; I hope so ...)
  • YASSER ARAFAT
  • XENA QUEEN OF AMAZON
  • YO MAMA!
  • FIDEL CASTRO
  • BOGIE LOWENSTEIN (From 10 things I hate about you, unless it's actually a real name)
  • ADOLF HITLER (Okay, not so amusing)
  • 8 BALL
  • AMANDA HUGNKISS
  • HEYWOOD JABLOME
  • HORSETHIEF
  • JACK KINGHOFF
  • LORD SCROTUMNUS 
  • MARIO BROS
  • MATZO BALL
  • MIKE HUNT
  • SPONGE BOB
  • SQUEAKY THE CAT
  • UNDER DOG
  • VOLTRON
  • YOSEMITE SAM
  • HIGG S. BOSON
  • JOEL TEITELBAUM (But why no votes for Schneerson???)
  • WILLIAM LLYOD GARRISON
  • ANTI-MCMAHON B/C HE VOTED AGAINST H.C. BILL
  • I SMOKE I VOTE
  • INANIMATE CARBON ROD
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