Pages

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Pennsylvania Predictions

Since this is a delegate race, all that matters is the delegate counts.

District-level delegate guesses:

PA-1 (South Philly, Southwest Philly, Center City, North Philly, small amounts of other parts of Philly and a little bit of suburb; heavily black [49.9%]; significant Hispanic [17%; may mostly be non-citizens; significant ethnic contingent [10% Irish, 8% Italian, 3% Polish]): Obama 5 [needs 64.29% of the vote to do so], Clinton 2
PA-2 (West Philly, Germantown, Roxbury; 61% black; wealthier northwest Philly) Obama 7 (needs 72.23% of the vote], Clinton 2
PA-3 (Northwest Pennsylvania, socially conservative, significant so-called "Reagan Democratic" [misnomer, but basic description holds]: Obama 2 [needs 30% + 1], Clinton 3
PA-4 (Northern Pittsburgh suburbs; socially conservative, 31% with bachelor's degree, 6th largest 65+ [heavily Dem registered older] outside of Florida and Arizona] (17%): Obama 2 Clinton 3
PA-5: North-Central Pennsylvania; Obama stronghold in Centre county [Penn State], rest of district less favorable for Obama but not many Dems: Obama 2 [37.5% + 1], Clinton 2
PA-6: Northwest Philly suburbs; parts of Chester, Montgomery, Berks; Obama 3 [41.7% required] Clinton 3
PA-7: Western Philly suburbs (Delaware County, mostly); strong switch of legacy Republicans to Dem party recently], very close race: Obama 3 [35.72% required] Clinton 4
PA-8: Eastern Philly suburbs (Bucks County) and tiny swatch of NE Philly, very close race: Obama 4 [victory required] Clinton 3
PA-9: South-central Pennsylvania; heavily Republican: Obama 1[16.7% required], Clinton 2
PA-10: Far Northeast to North-Central PA; "Reagan Democratic": Obama 1 (15% required, 37.5%+1 to 2), Clinton 3
PA-11: Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Northeast PA; "Reagan Democratic" but slightly more favorable and lower threshold to 2 dels: Obama 2 (30%+1 required), Clinton 3
PA-12: Southwest PA and a little Pittsburgh suburbs; quite old, very Reagan Dem; Obama 1(15% required, 30%+1 for 2), Clinton 4
PA-13: most of Northeast Philly, some of Montgomery county; Philly part working class, suburb part more "latte": Obama 3 [35.7% required], Clinton 4
PA-14: city of Pittsburgh and inner suburbs, 23.7% African-American, significant artsy/technology/student population with also large elderly and ethnic population: Obama 4 [win required], Clinton 3
PA-15: Lehigh valley: Obama 2 [30%+ required], Clinton 3
PA-16: Philly exurbs and Lancaster; Dems there are more liberal and younger: Obama 2 [37.5% required], Clinton 2
PA-17: Reading-Harrisburg belt, more working-class, 7.6% black: Obama 1 [15% required, 37.5%+1 to 2], Clinton 3
PA-18: southern Pittsburgh suburbs; 32.4% with bachelors, large old population: Obama 2 [30% required], Clinton 3
PA-19: southCentral/east Central PA; York and Adams County, heavily Republican, who knows about Dems there, Obama 2 [37.5% required]: Clinton 2

Total district: Clinton 54 Obama 49, with variation Clinton 49-60, Obama 43-54

Statewide:

At-large (35 delegates): Obama 16 (44.3% required, 47.15% for 17), Clinton 19 [Variation possible of Obama 14-19, Clinton 16-21]
Pledged PLEO (20 delegates): Obama 9 (42.5% required, 47.5% for 10), Clinton 11 [Variation possible of Obama 8-11, Clinton 9-12]

Total: Clinton 84 Obama 74; variation Clinton 74-93; Obama 65-84

We'll see how right I am starting at 8

No comments: