Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Obama Denounces Reverend Wright

This is good news, I hope.

In Winston-Salem, Obama sharply attacks Reverend Jeremiah Wright and the substance of his remarks yesterday, a far sharper disavowal than he gave in Philadelphia last month.

The core of his message: That Wright was not only offensive, but the polar opposite of Obama's own views and politics.

Certainly this won't hurt him. Even if African-Americans did feel "Sista Souljah'd," they'll still be voting for him. They're not going to Clinton (impressive how Hillary and Bill have ruined their reputation among African-Americans in the last year and even in early February; while the blacks I canvassed in Trenton were [except for the Caribbean immigrants] pretty much unanimously for Obama, they were still feeling good about Senator Clinton. It does not seem that that's still the case.

And certainly, they'll vote for Obama 90%+ in the general.

So, hopefully, this reassures some misgivings among the older and less highly educated white voters.

Despite the media hype, I'm less worried about Jewish voters, although I suppose the Jews I'm around are younger, and when they aren't younger, quite liberal [then again, Jews are far more likely to identify as liberals or progressives than any other group, including African-Americans.

Then again, my somewhat hawkish friend who's grandfather was in the Lehi and who himself is relatively hardline on Israel (although not particularly fond of the settlers) is an Obama supporter. Then again, he's young.

Current Superdelegate Breakdown

Or, rather, Representatives, Senators and Governors; there are a whole bunch of other superdelegates, of course; I just want to concentrate on this.

My source is the excellent Democratic Convention Watch

While still trailing Senator Clinton by 20 superdelegates overall, he now leads in Governors (14 to 10), Senators (18 to 14) and is just 2 behind in Representatives (Clinton leads 77 to 75); this would, incidentally be a great time for my Representative Rush Holt and 2 others to endorse Obama; it looks like Obama may have narrowly won the Congressional district (although it's not entirely clear as the Division of Elections only gives results by municipality and Trenton, Freehold, Franklin, and I think one other municipality is split).

So, anyway, here's the breakdown by state: both elected official superdelegates and total superdelegates. States where elected officials are ignoring their constituents are italicized; if non-elected supers as a whole are ignoring, it's bolded (if both, it's both bolded and italicized).

I am not counting the rulebreaking states in according with DNC procedure.

Also, some of the other superdelegates are also elected officials, but are superdelegates for reasons other than being a Senator, Representative or Governor

Alabama-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 0 Clinton 3
Alaska-Elected: Obama 0 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 1 Clinton 1
American Samoa-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 1; Other: Clinton 3 Obama 1
Arizona-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 1; Other: Clinton 3 Obama 1
Arkansas-Elected: Clinton 6 Obama 0; Other: Clinton 5 Obama 0
California-Elected: Clinton 18 Obama 7; Other: Clinton 12 Obama 6
Colorado-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 1; Other: Obama 3 Clinton 3
Connecticut-Elected: Obama 4 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 4 Clinton 1
Delaware-Elected: Clinton 1 Obama 0; Other: Clinton 2 Obama 1
Georgia-Elected: Obama 5 Clinton 0; Other: Clinton 3 Obama 2
Hawaii-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 1; Other: Clinton 1 Obama 0
Idaho-Elected: Obama 0 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 3 Clinton 0
Illinois-Elected: Obama 13 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 12 Clinton 0
Indiana-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 1; Other: Clinton 4 Obama 2
Iowa-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 1; Other: Clinton 2 Obama 2
Kansas-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 2 Clinton 1
Kentucky-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 0; Other: Clinton 3 Obama 0
Louisiana-Elected: Obama 0 Clinton 0; Other: Clinton 2 Obama 1
Maine-Elected: Clinton 1 Obama 0; Other: Obama 2 Clinton 0
Maryland-Elected: Clinton 3 Obama 1; Other: Clinton 7 Obama 3
Massachusetts-Elected: Obama 5 Clinton 4; Other: Obama 6 Clinton 5
Minnesota-Elected: Obama 5 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 5 Clinton 3
Mississippi-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 2 Clinton 0
Missouri-Elected: Obama 3 Clinton 1; Other: Clinton 3 Obama 2
Montana-Elected: Obama 0 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 3 Clinton 0
Nebraska-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 5 Clinton 0
Nevada-Elected: Clinton 1 Obama 0; Other: Obama 2 Clinton 1
New Hampshire-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 0; Other: Clinton 3 Obama 1
New Jersey-Elected: Clinton 6 Obama 1; Other: Clinton 6 Obama 3
New Mexico-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 0; Other: Clinton 6 Obama 1
New York-Elected: Clinton 26 Obama 0; Other: Clinton 13 Obama 1
North Carolina-Elected: Obama 3 Clinton 1 [just now]; Other: Obama 3 Clinton 1
North Dakota-Elected: Obama 3 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 4 Clinton 0
Ohio-Elected: Clinton 4 Obama 0; Other: Obama 5 Clinton 1
Oklahoma-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 3 Clinton 1
Oregon-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 2; Other: Obama 0 Clinton 0
Pennsylvania-Elected: Clinton 5 Obama 3; Other: Clinton 10 Obama 2
Puerto Rico-Elected: Obama 1?? Clinton 0; Other: Obama 1 Clinton 1
Rhode Island-Elected: Clinton 2 Obama 1; Other: Clinton 6 Obama 1
South Carolina-Elected: Obama 0 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 2 Clinton 2
South Dakota-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 4 Clinton 0
Tennessee-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 1; Other: Clinton 4 Obama 2
Texas-Elected: Clinton 6 Obama 5*; Other: Obama 5 Clinton 5
Utah-Elected: Obama 0 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 2 Clinton 1
Vermont-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 3 Clinton 1
Virginia-Elected: Obama 4 Clinton 0; Other: Clinton 6 Obama 0
Virgin Islands-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 1; Other: Obama 1 Clinton 1
Washington-Elected: Clinton 4 Obama 3; Other: Clinton 2 Obama 1
West Virginia-Elected: Obama 2 Clinton 0; Other: Clinton 3 Obama 2
Wisconsin-Elected: Obama 6 Clinton 1; Other: Obama 4 Clinton 1
Wyoming-Elected: Obama 1 Clinton 0; Other: Obama 2 Clinton 0

Boswell looks good against Fallon

Ed Fallon is running against incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell in the Des Moines-based 3rd district of Iowa, but a Research 2000 poll has Boswell up 53%-28%. In 2004, George W. Bush beat John Kerry here by the slimmest of margins.

While, Gore beat Bush narrowly here in 2000, that was not thanks to Ed Fallon. See, Fallon decided to betray the Democratic party (and, I believe, the country and the world) by supporting Ralph Nader for president.

This year the choice is between George W. Bush and a Democrat who is to the right of Bill Clinton. I don't begrudge my friends and constituents who plan to vote for Al Gore. I understand their fear of George W. Bush. But voting against somebody isn't enough anymore. If I had three hands maybe I could hold my nose, my gut and my mouth and vote for Al Gore. But in good conscience, I can't, I won't, and you shouldn't either.

He said this, by the way, to students at the University of Iowa. He stoked the anger and dissatisfaction rather than trying to do something about it. As you may know, thanks to Nader and some other factors, America elected George W. Bush as president, with unimaginably destructive consequences.

While perhaps not quite burning-in-hell-worthy like having voted for Nader in 2000 in Florida or New Hampshire (in both of which Gore + Nader was more than Bush, and either one alone would have given Gore the presidency), it was still an act of treason against the Democratic party, and demonstrated either a severe lack of basic math skills (failure to understand the first-past-the-post system) or an unbelievable lack of judgment (failure to realize just how much of a difference there was between Gore and Bush). Both of which, in my mind, disqualify him from ever holding a federal office.

Moreover, Iowa was one of those states close enough to make such an act particularly disgusting. The others, by the way:

Arizona: Gore + Nader was 3.00% behind Bush
Arkansas: Gore + Nader was 3.99% behind Bush
Colorado: Gore + Nader was 2.11% behind Bush
Iowa: Gore won by 0.32%
Maine: Gore won by 5.12%
Michigan: Gore won by 5.14%
Minnesota: Gore won by 2.41%
Missouri: Gore + Nader was 1.71% behind Bush
Nevada: Gore + Nader was 1.08% behind Bush
New Mexico: Gore won by 0.06%
Ohio: Gore + Nader was 1.01% behind Bush
Oregon: Gore won by 0.44%
Pennsylvania: Gore won by 4.17%
Tennessee: Gore + Nader was 2.92% behind Bush
Virginia: Gore + Nader was 5.86% behind Bush
Washington: Gore won by 5.57%
West Virginia: Gore + Nader was 4.58% behind Bush
Wisconsin: Gore won by 0.22%

So, anyway, while I dislike much of Boswell's voting record, he's not a traitor, so he deserves full support in the primary.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Proof of Overwhelming College Student Support for Obama-Part 1

Lauren Wolfe and Awais Khaleel, President and Vice President of the College Democrats of America, are both superdelegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

They've posted a Youtube urging college students to contact them about their votes.

Before I contact them, I'd like to collect proof via election results that Barack Obama is the overwhelming favorite of College Democrats (or at least, Democratic and Democratic-leaning college students).

Let's start with Ohio, since that's apparently the most important state ever!

Ohio University in Athens

Let me first note that Ohio University is in Appalachia, where Obama has done very, very poorly.

Not only did he not win any counties in Appalachian Ohio, but other than Athens County (containing Ohio University, Hillary won 52.6-44.8), Holmes County (where almost everybody is Amish and the few non-Amish tend to be more likely to be liberal Dems [this might also help explain Lancaster County, PA]; either that or the Amish like Obama; Hillary won 56-40), and Clermont County (Cincinnati exurbs, less than true "Appalachia", Hillary won 60-35), Obama lost every county except Tuscawaras [63-33 Hillary win] by a 2:1 margin. Clinton won the region 69.0% to 27.7%, getting 70% of the vote in most other counties and 80% in 2.

So, in other words, Appalachians in Ohio (and elsewhere), have not tended to go for Obama.

Further note: Athens, Ohio is 3.82% black, which, while a bit above average for Appalachia, is still very low.

On-campus precincts are in bold. Nearby barely off-campus precincts are not.

Ward 1-Precinct 4: Obama 171-57
Ward 1-Precinct 5: Obama 192-47
Ward 1-Precinct 6: Obama 75-17
Ward 2-Precinct 1: Obama 269-65
Ward 2-Precinct 2: Obama 164-56
Ward 4-Precinct 5: Obama 320-61
Ward 3-Precinct 1: Obama 122-30
Ward 3-Precinct 2: Obama 143-48
Ward 3-Precinct 3: Obama 93-31
Ward 3-Precinct 4: Obama 104-38
Ward 4-Precinct 4: Obama 164-56

Total on-Campus: Obama 1191-303 79.8% of the vote
Total: Obama 1817-506 78.2% of the vote.

Ohio State University-Columbus, OH

Columbus was, as were several other cities in Ohio, strong for Obama, for several reasons (see precinct results
Ward 15-Precinct A: Obama 186-68
Ward 39-Precinct A: Obama 233-63
Ward 40-Precinct B: Obama 196-64
Ward 41-Precinct B: Obama 221-52
Ward 41-Precinct C: Obama 61-22
Ward 41-Precinct D: Obama 84-29
Ward 41-Precinct E: Obama 113-47

Total: Obama 1094-345 (perhaps many live off-campus or turnout was very lackluster ... I don't know, but I can't tell for sure where you'd vote)
Oberlin College-Oberlin, OH

Oberlin is, of course, famous for being a left-wing college, ever since it was a hot-bed of abolition and started admitting blacks in the mid-19th century.

And of course, they went heavily for Obama (see canvass report)

Ward 2-A: Obama 192-43
Ward 3-A: Obama 435-99
Ward 3-B: Obama 347-99

Obama 974-241: 80.2% of the vote

University of Dayton

This is a Catholic school. It's been claimed that Obama has severe problems among Catholics.

Ward 1-A: Obama 117-49
Ward 1-D: Obama 26-13

So, east, west, central, big state, public, private, religious, secular, urban, rural, Catholic, liberal arts, Obama wins big among students in Ohio.

On-Campus precincts:

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Pennsylvania Predictions

Since this is a delegate race, all that matters is the delegate counts.

District-level delegate guesses:

PA-1 (South Philly, Southwest Philly, Center City, North Philly, small amounts of other parts of Philly and a little bit of suburb; heavily black [49.9%]; significant Hispanic [17%; may mostly be non-citizens; significant ethnic contingent [10% Irish, 8% Italian, 3% Polish]): Obama 5 [needs 64.29% of the vote to do so], Clinton 2
PA-2 (West Philly, Germantown, Roxbury; 61% black; wealthier northwest Philly) Obama 7 (needs 72.23% of the vote], Clinton 2
PA-3 (Northwest Pennsylvania, socially conservative, significant so-called "Reagan Democratic" [misnomer, but basic description holds]: Obama 2 [needs 30% + 1], Clinton 3
PA-4 (Northern Pittsburgh suburbs; socially conservative, 31% with bachelor's degree, 6th largest 65+ [heavily Dem registered older] outside of Florida and Arizona] (17%): Obama 2 Clinton 3
PA-5: North-Central Pennsylvania; Obama stronghold in Centre county [Penn State], rest of district less favorable for Obama but not many Dems: Obama 2 [37.5% + 1], Clinton 2
PA-6: Northwest Philly suburbs; parts of Chester, Montgomery, Berks; Obama 3 [41.7% required] Clinton 3
PA-7: Western Philly suburbs (Delaware County, mostly); strong switch of legacy Republicans to Dem party recently], very close race: Obama 3 [35.72% required] Clinton 4
PA-8: Eastern Philly suburbs (Bucks County) and tiny swatch of NE Philly, very close race: Obama 4 [victory required] Clinton 3
PA-9: South-central Pennsylvania; heavily Republican: Obama 1[16.7% required], Clinton 2
PA-10: Far Northeast to North-Central PA; "Reagan Democratic": Obama 1 (15% required, 37.5%+1 to 2), Clinton 3
PA-11: Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Northeast PA; "Reagan Democratic" but slightly more favorable and lower threshold to 2 dels: Obama 2 (30%+1 required), Clinton 3
PA-12: Southwest PA and a little Pittsburgh suburbs; quite old, very Reagan Dem; Obama 1(15% required, 30%+1 for 2), Clinton 4
PA-13: most of Northeast Philly, some of Montgomery county; Philly part working class, suburb part more "latte": Obama 3 [35.7% required], Clinton 4
PA-14: city of Pittsburgh and inner suburbs, 23.7% African-American, significant artsy/technology/student population with also large elderly and ethnic population: Obama 4 [win required], Clinton 3
PA-15: Lehigh valley: Obama 2 [30%+ required], Clinton 3
PA-16: Philly exurbs and Lancaster; Dems there are more liberal and younger: Obama 2 [37.5% required], Clinton 2
PA-17: Reading-Harrisburg belt, more working-class, 7.6% black: Obama 1 [15% required, 37.5%+1 to 2], Clinton 3
PA-18: southern Pittsburgh suburbs; 32.4% with bachelors, large old population: Obama 2 [30% required], Clinton 3
PA-19: southCentral/east Central PA; York and Adams County, heavily Republican, who knows about Dems there, Obama 2 [37.5% required]: Clinton 2

Total district: Clinton 54 Obama 49, with variation Clinton 49-60, Obama 43-54


At-large (35 delegates): Obama 16 (44.3% required, 47.15% for 17), Clinton 19 [Variation possible of Obama 14-19, Clinton 16-21]
Pledged PLEO (20 delegates): Obama 9 (42.5% required, 47.5% for 10), Clinton 11 [Variation possible of Obama 8-11, Clinton 9-12]

Total: Clinton 84 Obama 74; variation Clinton 74-93; Obama 65-84

We'll see how right I am starting at 8

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Another Old-School, Honest Republican for Obama

This time it's former Deputy Attorney General William Ruckelshaus, notorious for being fired from the Nixon administration allong with Eliot Richardson for refusing to fire special prosecutor Archibald Cox to stop his investigation of Watergate (crazy man and Solicitor General Robert Bork fired him).

He joins many lifelong Republicans who are concerned about the way their party has been moving and is looking for change.

Senator Lincoln Chafee

Presidential granddaughter Susan Eisenhower

Doug Kmiec, Assistant Attorney General for Office of Legal Counsel, Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations

former Illinois Representative John B. Anderson

and some less prominent ones ...

Lou Thieblemont, mayor of Camp Hill, PA

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Why They're Right

You've been Gravelanch'd!