Atlanta 2010 Census Population Seems to Have Been Undercounted

Above, is a scatterplot I made comparing the July 2009 Census Bureau estimated populations of cities with at least 100,000 people (according to the Jul 2009 estimates).

You can look at the spreadsheet I used/created for this here


Missing are the cities with over 1,000,000 people (because they make the rest of the scatterplot too small) as well as those cities with between 100,000 and 1,000,000 people from states the Census Bureau still has to release ( Maine, Massachusetts,Michigan,New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, South Carolina and West Virginia).

Notice how the data fits very well(even though the populations in July 2009 were slightly different from those in April 2010), with one glaring exception-the city of Atlanta, where, as it so happens, I now reside.

The July 2009 Estimate put Atlanta's population at 540,922. Today's Census 2010 release of Georgia put the April 1, 2010 population of Atlanta at 420,003, just barely up from the April 1, 2000 Census population of 416,474.

Putting aside that it just seems like there MUST have more than a 3,500 person gain based on residential development in Atlanta in the last 10 years, the chances of a city (in this case Atlanta) being more than 6 standard deviations away from the mean (no other city was more than 2.67 standard deviations away from the mean) is 1 in 500 million (assuming the error here is normally distributed, which it looks to be).

That is to say, it seems MUCH more likely that there's either a typo or a serious undercount of Atlanta's population (I tend to think they undercounted in a lot of places and not just Atlanta personally ...)

This is a very serious issue; the difference in population here is enough to account for about 1/6th of a seat in Congress, 2/3 of a seat in the Georgia Senate, and 2.25 seats in the Georgia House of Representatives, not to mention millions in population-based federal block grants.

I would strongly urge Mayor Kasim Reed to sue the Census Bureau over an undercount of Atlanta.


Anyway, all of that being said, there is the possibility that they somehow majorly majorly overlooked the "black flight" phenomenon, as the official 2010 Census numbers show a 17% increase in the white population of Atlanta but a 12% decrease in the black population (a whopping 65% increase in the Asian population, which is probably due largely to expansion of Georgia Tech). More on black flight later.

What was Huckabee Taught about the British in Arkansas Schools?

OK, so the obvious part of the stupidity in Mike Huckabee's recent statement is that President Obama grew up in Kenya. I don't even think that's a widely held view among the Birthers.

But consider the context of where Huckabee said it.

"I would love to know more. What I know is troubling enough," Huckabee said of the president in an interview with New York radio station WOR. "And one thing that I do know is his having grown up in Kenya, his view of the Brits, for example, very different than the average American."

Huckabee, the former presidential candidate and current Fox News host who has said he is thinking about mounting another campaign, added, "his perspective as growing up in Kenya with a Kenyan father and grandfather, their view of the Mau Mau Revolution in Kenya is very different than ours because he probably grew up hearing that the British are a bunch of imperialists who persecuted his grandfather."

I guess he's got a point. I mean, look at the kind of terrible things Kenyan revolutionaries said about then-Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

• He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
  
• He is at this time transporting large armies of foreign mercenaries to complete the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of cruelty and perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the head of a civilized nation.

or about the British in general

• Thousands are already ruined by British barbarity; (thousands more will probably suffer the same fate.)

Wait, those weren't Kenyan revolutionaries; that's in the Declaration of Independence (referring to King George) and in Common Sense (Thomas Paine's famous pamphlet).

Most Americans ARE taught that the British were a bunch of imperialists who persecuted our ancestors (if we had ancestors in the country at the time). Perhaps Arkansas schools were too busy teaching the "War of Northern Aggression" and the terrible persecution of the South to have any time to teach about the British.

Hey, maybe that racist environment he grew up in is what's causing Mr. Huckabee to try to paint a black president as foreign/less-than-American. Huckabee certainly needs to answer some questions on the subject.

Why is Michael Lynch still given the opportunity to write about oil?

I am absolutely shocked and disgusted that the New York Times would let Michael C. Lynch write an opinion article on oil and energy.

Now, it's one thing to have conservatives writing op-eds espousing conservative policies. It is another thing to let complete fools and failures like Michael C. Lynch with massive, massive past failures pretending to be experts on energy and writing outright lies.

Now, it wouldn't be fair if I said that without backing it up. So let's take a look at Mr. Lynch's past.

Back in November 1997, Mr. Lynch is quoted in Business Week as saying:

''Oil-price forecasters make sheep seem like independent thinkers,'' gibes Massachusetts Institute of Technology energy researcher Michael C. Lynch. ''There's no evidence that mineral prices rise over time. Technology always overwhelms depletion.''

Notice that he didn't just limit this prognostication to his own field of energy. He made the claim that this holds for mineral prices in general. Now, take a look at the relative real prices (i.e. adjusted for inflation using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data) for four important minerals (crude oil, gold, copper, aluminum) over the last 25 years, with the baseline in November 1997. Note: the prices for the commodities can be found here

Now, obviously the prices of these minerals have been influenced to a large extent by general market factors; in particular, copper and crude oil took an especially large price drop (because the Great Recession caused a major demand reduction). Nevertheless, for gold, copper and crude, we've not seen technology overwhelm depletion; all 3 are (even when inflation is accounted for as it is in the above graph) costing about 3 times what they were in 1997, with a general rise starting in 2000. Only aluminum (one of the most abundant elements on the planet, although much of it is not easily accessible) has more or less remained the same.

However, that's not the worst of Mr. Lynch's failures.



Why is Mr. Lynch a massive failure? Take a look at this article from Forbes in October of 2006.

Don't sell that SUV just yet. Oil, at a recent $66.50 a barrel, will fall to $45 by mid-2007 and could dip briefly into the 20s in 2008. Sometime next year you are going to see a $1.95 price on a gas pump.

So says Michael C. Lynch, 51, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Amherst, Mass. He swears he hasn't been inhaling fumes. His reasoning: New supply, coming online from all corners of the world, is more than ample to satisfy growth in demand and sufficient even to withstand an embargo against Iran, which produces 3.75 million barrels of oil a day. Lynch argues that the threat of disruptions--nuclear brinkmanship, war, terrorism, hurricanes, pipeline corrosion--has larded oil prices with a $20-a-barrel risk premium. As these perils recede, oil prices will fall.

Of course, as you may remember, we didn't see $1.95 in 2007. We saw in the $70 range in mid-2007, and a RISE into the 120s in 2008. The only reason we briefly got even close to his numbers in late 2008/early 2009 was because demand plummeted thanks to the financial crisis/recession. We never saw these "new supplies," and as demand began picking up again, so did prices. And these "new supplies" are in the form of oil shale/oil sands which are far worse pollution-wise than regular oil, and riskier and riskier deep-sea, which we just saw worked out just great this summer.

Yes, Libya/Algeria are a temporary thing (unless they aren't ...), but if relatively smaller producing countries like them result in these kind of price increases, what happens if there's a revolution in Saudi Arabia?

Much to the satisfaction of the peak-oil crowd, the Obama administration is throwing federal subsidies — some $8 billion in its 2012 budget — at all sorts of unproven, unrealistic and inefficient energy technologies like wind farms and electric cars.

Now, even putting his and everyone else's stupidity on climate aside, the man is still silly.

Yeah, so unrealistic/inefficient/unproven is wind; clearly it was the Bush administration's (nonexistent) massive federal wind program that has increased the percentage of U.S. electricity from wind from 0.17% in 2001 to 2.25% in the 12 months ending November 2010 (and growing); still not much, of course, but on the other hand, Libya produces only about 2.1% of world oil and yet it's still having a real effect.

As for electric cars, they're hard to prove without building/encouraging a charging infrastructure, but they are about to start being marketed even without the infrastructure.

List of Libyan Ambassador Resignations

Below is a (non-exhaustive) list of Libyan ambassadors (and other officials) around the world who have resigned and/or broken with the Gadhafi regime as a result of the ongoing protests, with links to articles

Ambassadors/Etc Who Have Resigned

• Arab League: Ambassador, Abdel-Moneim al-Houni resigned 2/20/2011; entire mission team resigned 2/25/2011
• Bangladesh: AH Elimam, 2/22/2011
• France: Mohamed Salaheddine Zarem, resigned 2/25/2011
  
• India: Ali El-Assawi, resigned 2/21/2011
• Indonesia: Salaheddin M El Bishari, resigned 2/23/2011
• Jordan: Mohammad Hassan Barghathi, resigned 2/24/2011
• Morocco: And 10 diplomatic staff members, 2/24/2011
• Portugal: Ali Ibrahim Emdored, 2/25/2011
• United Kingdom: some staff but not ambassador, 2/21/2011
• UNESCO: Abdulsalam El Qallali, resigned 2/25/2011
• UN Human Rights Council: Entire mission resigned 2/25/2011
• United Nations: Several diplomatic staff including deputy Ambassador Omar Al-Dabashi (not the Ambassador, though), 2/21/2011
• United States: Ali Suleiman Aujali, called for Gadhafi to quit, 2/22/2011

Ambassadors/Etc Supporting Gadhafi Regime

• Brazil: Salem Ezubedi voiced support for regime 2/24/2011
• Malta: Saadun Suayeh says Gadhafi must not go, 2/21/2011

Amusing and Interesting 2010 New York City Write-In Votes

New York City is one of all-too-few places that makes write-in vote totals publicly available on the Internet. I say all-too-few because write-in votes let you vote for whoever or whatever you want.

They don't have to be alive. They don't have to be real. It doesn't have to be a physical entity. You can even try to vote for a SQL injection

Anyway, interesting write-ins in New York City in 2010 include:

For Governor:

• Big Bird
• Constantine
• Christopher Christie (Governor of New Jersey)
• Dan Malloy (Governor of Connecticut)
• Declined Phantom
• Duke Nukem
• Eternal Father & Lord
• Full Public Funding
• Fund Autism
• Gay Marriage
• God Jesus Christ
• I Am Government Rachel E Boschey
• I Object to No Term Limits
• Ish Pee Pee (Unless this is actually a real person ...)
• Lisa Murbowski (some joker referencing the write-in campaign in Alaska, intentionally misspelling Senator Murkowski's name, no doubt)
• Norman H. Finkelstein (Ewwwwww!!!!)
• Nuchem Rosenberg (ultra-Orthodox agitator against child abuse)
• Pimky & the Brain
• T. Party 
• The Hippo at the Bronx
• The Hoff (don't know what this is ...)
• William Marly Tweed (a mistake for the last name of the man better known as Boss Tweed

For Senator (Schumer seat)

• A (3 votes ...)
• Boycott Parthed Israel! (shows the level of education and intelligence among that crowd ...)
• D-Bag
• Eternal Father & Lord
• European America
• Feisal Rauf (the imam-to-be at that controversial mosque)
• Full Public Funding
• Gay Marriage
• Ham Sandwich
• Harpo Marx
• Ish Pee Pee (again)
• Jeffrey Lebowski
• Jimmy McMillan (5 votes, because the rent is too ... damn ... high)
• King Kong
• Lisa Murkowstz (same joker, varying) 
• Lizard People (hell yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
• Lord Jesus Christ the Son of God
• Medicare for All
• Miss Peggy
• Mort Zucker-man (because of the spelling)
• Noam Chousky 
• Rachel Maddow of MSNBC
• Ron Paul (because you gotta vote for him)
• Single Payer

For Senator (Gillibrand seat)

• Barack H. Obama
• Bernard Madroff 
• Captain Kirk
• Caroline Kennedy (got like 18 votes under various name-spellings; guess she and her family were mad she wasn't appointed)
• Free Palestine
• Full Public Funding
• HIS HOLINESS THE DALILAMA
• Jack the Pumpkin King
• Lady Ga Ga
• None of the Foregoing (that's an amusing spelling)
• RN

Other Races

• (EXPLETIVE) Chanders (shame on New York for censoring!!!)
• LEGAIIZE MARIIIANA
• LEARNED HLND (if intended to be Learned Hand, amusing)
• Lisa Munkowski (someone still having fun)
• My Dog Karma
• My Dog Riley
• Non English Character (obviously it was actually some non-English character, shame on them for not letting Unicode handle it if possible)
• Overturn Citizens United
• Pee Wee Herman
• Revolution
• RX
• Snake People 
• Tim Lincicum
• Bull Shit! (if they didn't censor that ...)
• Immanuel Kant Liberal
• Anyme But
• Tony Soprano
• Axl Rose
• Comeone Qualifid 
• Fiscus Tree
• Fuhrer Williamsburg (heh)
• Pupa Rabi (this was for Supreme Court, so maybe they want his Beit Din?)
• Rabbi Judu Levin (please let this not have been an attempt to vote for Yehuda Levin ...)
• Bernard Goetz
• Biggie Smalls
• Bono the Boston Terrier
• Butt Head
• Dick Hertz
• Dick Hurtz
• Frank Zappa
• MR. X
• OBI-WAN-KENOBI
• RON JEREMY
• SCUM
• THE PEOPLE
• YODA
• SCREW GARY ACKERMAN (for Ackerman's seat in Congress)
• Kodos (Don't blame him/her!)
• George Habash (seriously??? And yet no votes for Meir Kahane?????)
• George Orwell
• Grimm
• TRANNY NAMED KRISTEN
• LORD VOLDEMORT
• JUDGE REINHOLD (to be a judge, of course)
•  

• LIZARD PEOPLE (3 votes, hell yes I loves NYC)
• NO SMOKING
• NO LAWYERS
• NOT HER
• OFF THE PIG
• ROBERT DROP THE STUDENTS (was this an attempted SQL injection; I hope so ...)
• YASSER ARAFAT
• XENA QUEEN OF AMAZON
• YO MAMA!
• FIDEL CASTRO
• BOGIE LOWENSTEIN (From 10 things I hate about you, unless it's actually a real name)
• ADOLF HITLER (Okay, not so amusing)
• 8 BALL
• AMANDA HUGNKISS
• HEYWOOD JABLOME
• HORSETHIEF
• JACK KINGHOFF
• LORD SCROTUMNUS 
• MARIO BROS
• MATZO BALL
• MIKE HUNT
• SPONGE BOB
• SQUEAKY THE CAT
• UNDER DOG
• VOLTRON
• YOSEMITE SAM
• HIGG S. BOSON
• JOEL TEITELBAUM (But why no votes for Schneerson???)
• WILLIAM LLYOD GARRISON
• ANTI-MCMAHON B/C HE VOTED AGAINST H.C. BILL
• I SMOKE I VOTE
• INANIMATE CARBON ROD

In 

Miller Outperforms on Newly Counted Ballots, but not by enough to win

29316 left, and Murkowski needs to have 25084 (85.6%) unchallenged for her to be ahead of Joe Miller (by 1 vote) without relying on the challenged but counted ballots. She currently has
90.16% of the write-in votes as being cast for her without being challenged.

Relying on the challenged but counted ballots, Murkowski only needs 67.5% of the outstanding write-in ballots in order to win, and she has currently gotten 97.8% of the tallied write-in ballots for her with or without challenges.

In other words, the newly counted ballots (absentee and questioned ballots), while slightly better for Joe Miller than the previously counted ballots, did not even have him outperforming "write-in", much less outperforming by enough to give him a good shot at victory.

New Strategy for Joe Miller: Which Lisa Murkowski Did Voters Mean?

Joe Miller, the bearded Tea Party wonder from Alaska (I don't mind the beard since I have one too, although his is lame) may be in a lot of trouble.

And he's tried so very hard and really pulled out the stops. He has the National REpublican Senatorial Committee spending for him.

Friday, the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent out an e-mail encouraging donors to assist Miller. The NRSC's main aim is to elect and re-elect Republicans, and until today it was unclear whether it would fully back Miller's post-election fight with Murkowksi, another Republican.

In his e-mail, the chairman of the NRSC, Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, warned that both sides "are beginning to lawyer up and prepare for any possible legal fights. Joe needs your help to make sure he has enough money to make it a fair contest."
...
"We need to get Joe the resources he needs to win the vote count," he wrote. "Because we need Joe to join our fight against Barack Obama. Help ensure that this vote count is conducted fairly."

Notice that the Republican party's goals in the Senate are not to help get America back on track. It's not even to enact a conservative agenda. It's to "fight against Barack Obama."

He's also gotten Floyd Brown, the infamous person behind the infamous "Willie Horton" ad and the founder of Citizens United, to advise his campaign. By this he means make up "allege" voter fraud and intimidation without providing real examples, claiming conveniently that people are too afraid to come forward; perhaps they fear Willie Horton will come after them if they do.

He's got a truly desperate legal team, which has come up with a novel theory that misspellings of Lisa Murkowski's name are "protest votes" against Lisa Murkowski.

Prior to the election, people commented on radio stations and in the comment sections in blogs and newspaper stories that they would deliberately incorrectly write-in a variation of "Murkowski" as a protest. They did so knowing that Murkowski was spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on a "spelling bee" campaign, replete with wrist bands, pencils and tattoos, all to educate the voters on proper spelling. Why was this done? Because even Murkowski had read the law and knew that it required proper spelling -- "No exceptions." So protest voters were trying to send a message to the candidate.

Unfortunately for ol' Joe, all of this may not be enough. The latest numbers don't look good.

The Division reports 89.78 percent of the write-ins are unchallenged for Murkowski, a number that's held steady during the count.

The Division of Elections overturned challenges by the Miller campaign on another 8 percent of the ballots and counted them for Murkowski. Miller hopes the courts will reverse that.

Just 1.52 percent of the 45,132 write-in ballots reviewed so far have been successfully challenged by Miller ballot observers.

There were, in total, 92,979 write-in votes, and 82,180 votes for Joe Miller. So there are 47,847 remaining write-in ballots to review.

Of the 45,132 reviewed so far, 40519 are unchallenged for Murkowski, so she needs only 41662 of the 47,847 remaining (87.07%) in order to be victorious even if all of the challenged ballots are thrown out. If she maintains the current rate, she'll have 83,476 votes, for a margin over Miller that even recounting wouldn't be likely to change.

So I'd urge Joe Miller's attorneys to take the next logical step. How can we be sure all of the votes for Lisa Murkowski were for the incumbent Senator Lisa Ann Murkowski?

From an excerpt of what I'm sure will be a forthcoming lawsuit:

They could well have meant Lisa Murkowski of Delwood, Kansas, who is the "Representative Conference Vice Chair at American Academy of Family Physicians" according to a White Pages search. Of course, this Ms. Murkowski is not eligible to be a Senator from Alaska, but that's okay. They were protest votes for that Lisa! I urge all write in votes that did not make it clear that they supported the specific Lisa Murkowski who is currently Senator to be thrown out because voter intent cannot be determined.